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| Photo By: Cardinal Girl |
Prospect Miner’s™ Top 100 Prospects 2008
By Darryl Houston Smith
One of Baseball’s annual rites of winter includes going down to your local newsstand to pick up a few of the many fine magazines on sale devoted to the upcoming fantasy baseball season. We all do it but then we get home and start reading them only to find that many of those publications were written months ago and are already past their sell date and in the end tell us little.
So here is some fresh intelligence for you to help in your upcoming mafia drafts and, even more importantly, this is information that will help guide you when you have make the crucial decisions during the season on which key prospect pickups can save your season or turn you into a champion.
Last years mafia drafts saw too many top prospects taken far too soon. Did you waste a valuable pick on Homer Bailey or Alex Gordon? Or did you wait and pick up Ryan Braun or Troy Tulowitzki as a free agent pickup? If you drafted anybody named Homer then this list is for you.
In putting together these rankings, I have tried to create a highly personalized --and thus deeper subjective -- blending of available axioms, profiles, and projections. My GVA “good value approach” to ranking prospects is based on my belief that good risk avoidance is crucially reliant on being able to recognize good values. Ron Shandler is fond of saying “This is not a game of projections. It is a game of market value versus real value”. I could not agree more. I have practiced GVA successfully in real world situations and find that it adapts surprising well to fantasy baseball.
As you look over this list you may not see everyone that you expected to see. Twenty-year-old Justin Upton was dropped from my 2008 prospects list since he has reached 140 at-bats in his MLB career. I use the same cut-offs for prospects as the Baseball America Prospects Handbook (130 at-bats or 50 big league innings). It keeps things clearer. For those of you mafia insiders who got a sneak preview of this list last week you may also notice that I didn't include Japanese imports Kosuke Fukudome or Hiroki Kuroda either. Although I do track "imports," I just keep them side-boarded until I can make a clearer call on their MLB status. Since many Japanese players need to be "posted," it’s hard to tell just when/if ever they will make it to the States. Fukudome was a true free agent - rare in Japan. He was not posted by his former team. However, now that he has signed with the Cubs and I have had a chance to think about him in this context I have included him in my revised prospects list at number #13 and also added Dodgers pitcher Hiroki Kuroda at #76 and the White Sox Alexei Ramirez at #77.
Here is the complete run down of the Fantasy Baseball Mafia Top 100 Prospects for the year 2008. In the following weeks, each of these rising stars will be briefly profiled and will have a Major League ETA assigned to them as well. During the season look for more detailed discussions on prospects within our mafia forums. Unlike those forgotten magazines from January this information will remain fresh and be vital throughout the year.
Prospect Miner’s™ Top 100 Prospects 2008
Rank | Player | Position | Team | Impressions |
1 | Colby Rasmus | OF | STL | The best all-round player in the minor leagues. Period. ETA: June 1. 2008 |
2 | Jay Bruce | OF | CIN | Future All-star level power hitter. Still needs to work on contact rate. Reds shouldn’t rush him. Give him enough time to develop and the payoff could be huge. ETA: June 1, 2008 |
3 | Cameron Maybin | OF | FLA | Still needs to fill out that 6’4 frame. Compares to Alex Rios. ETA: 2009 |
4 | Clay Buchholz | SP | BOS | Future No. 1 starter. Red Sox can afford to bring him along slowly. ETA: August 15, 2008. |
5 | Evan Longoria | 3B | TB | Better athlete than either Braun or Wright. Will be All-star level 3B for many years. ETA: June 1, 2008 |
6 | Clayton Kershaw | SP | LAD | Meet next season’s top Pitcher in the Minors. The hype will be huge but this kid can be as tough as Orel Hershiser and has a much better arm. ETA: 2009 |
7 | Joba Chamberlain | SP | NYY | Joba is a beast. He has the ability to dominate hitters at all levels. Will join the Yankee rotation in 08 and continue to learn on the job. ETA: NOW |
8 | Jacoby Ellsbury | OF | BOS | A beautiful and electrifying all-round player. Had a sick contact rate (getting wood on ball) of 87% in only 116 at-bats. Ichiro’s rate was 89% ETA: NOW |
9 | Homer Bailey | SP | CIN | That 97 mph hammer was real. He will be back when he learns command of his other pitches. ETA: 2009 |
10 | Travis Snider | OF | TOR | Raw Power. Very intense player. Tough kid. Just hits. All-star level hitter. ETA: 2009 |
11 | Andrew McCutchen | OF | PIT | Passionate, heady 5-tool player. The Glove is already major ready. Will be at the top of the Pirates lineup for many years. ETA: 2009 |
12 | Adam Miller | SP | CLE | Tremendous makeup. Health risk. Classic Power pitcher. Future closer? This guy is going to rack up some serious K’s if he can stay healthy. ETA: June 1, 2008 |
13 | Kosuke Fukudome | OF | CHC | Dome-san will put up Abreuesque numbers in 08 and name his newborn son Hayato, a combination of “windy city” and the No.1 ETA: NOW |
14 | Andy LaRoche | 3B | LAD | Being blocked in LA by a Relic. The kid can play. But must stay healthy and improve dedication before he can advance. ETA: August 15, 2008 |
15 | David Price | SP | TB | The prize of the 2007 draft. Just needs to get some pro innings. Smart kid. Great future. Will advance quickly. ETA: 2009 |
16 | Jacob McGee | SP | TB | Future No. 2 power pitcher. Needs to work on command. Compares well to Homer Bailey. ETA: 2009 |
17 | Brandon Wood | 3B/SS | LAA | At the crossroads this is a big year for him. Nothing left to prove in minors. Blocked at both 3B and SS ETA: August 15, 2008 |
18 | Joey Votto | 1B | CIN | Nothing left to prove in the minors. Turn him lose Dusty turn him lose. ETA: NOW |
19 | Matt Wieters | C | BAL | Another highly hyped expensive 2007 draftee for sure. But a switch-hitting catcher with power? Sweet. ETA: 2010 |
20 | Franklin Morales | SP | COL | Would you be interested in a hard-throwing left handed Venezuelan? Would that interest you? I thought so. ETA: 2009 |
21 | Johnny Cueto | SP | CIN | The most complete Reds pitching prospect at this time. Poised, determined, and has an exciting skill set. Future closer? Compares to Billy Wagner. ETA: 2009 |
22 | Reid Brignac | SS | TB | Smart, power-hitting SS. Still filling out frame. Might move to corner outfield in future. Must improve fielding to stay at SS. ETA: 2009 |
23 | Wade Davis | SP | TB | Big, gritty and aggressive. Future No.2 starter. ETA: 2009 |
24 | Matt Antonelli | 2B | SD | Former triple sport school boy star in Massachusetts. Feisty, improvement shown at every level. Must continue to work hard on fundamentals to advance. ETA: NOW |
25 | Ian Kennedy | SP | NYY | A good prospect, Ian is just not as gifted as either Joba or Hughes and his ceiling is lower. ETA: NOW |
26 | Daric Barton | 1B | OAK | Moneyball prototype. Healthy and ready to go. ETA: NOW |
27 | Rick Porcello | RHP | DET | Another expensive 2007 high school draftee with a huge upside. The Tigers are making a habit of signing the “hard to sign”. Compares to Josh Beckett. Tigers will not rush him to the bigs. ETA: 2010 |
28 | Matt LaPorta | LF | MIL | Another poised and powerful slugger on the rise. Compares well to Carlos Lee. ETA: June 1, 2008 |
29 | Taylor Teagarden | C | TEX | Leadership ability off the charts. Led Texas to 3 straight CWS. Still has room to grow as defensive catcher and at the plate. Past elbow troubles remain very much a concern. UP: The new Tek DN: could job share with Salty. ETA 2009 |
30 | Fernando Martinez | OF | NYM | Fantastic raw young talent only 18. Will come on fast. ETA: 2010 |
31 | Chris Marrero | OF | WAS | Power hitting stud. Steal of 2006 draft. Raw talent. Future corner infielder. Already best player in Washington’s system. ETA: 2009 |
32 | Mike Moustakas | SS/3B | KC | No.2 pick in 2007 draft. Raw Power. Very intense player. Tough kid. Just hits. All-star level hitter. ETA: 2010. |
33 | Fautino de los Santos | SP | OAK | Future closer, Can be overpowering at times. Key piece of Swisher deal. ETA: 2009 |
34 | Wladimir Balentien | OF | SEA | Dutch Olympian. If he can improve his plate discipline he could become a monster but must first continue to grow as a hitter. UP: In 2010 Vladimir will be spelled with a W. DN: meet the new Tim Salmon. Certainly, Mr. B does not lack any self confidence, on his future as a major league star: "I will hit like Manny Ramirez." |
35 | Nick Adenhart | SP | LAA | Post 2004 Tommy John surgery, he is ready to take the next step. A special pitcher. Tremendous competitor. ETA: June 1, 2008 |
36 | Desmond Jennings | OF | TB | The 6th Ray to make my list. Another nugget o’ talent. Can develop into a top-leadoff hitter. Great speed. Needs time to improve defensively. ETA: 2010 |
37 | Jordan Schafer | OF | ATL | Best bet inside the Braves to replace Andruw Jones. Not the player that Jones was at the same age. But could be a 20/20 man. The Glove is ready and so is his powerful throwing arm. ETA: 2009 |
38 | Gio Gonzalez | SP | OAK | 3 trades in 3 years give one pause. As complete a minor league pitcher as anyone just needs chance to shine. Another important piece of Swisher deal. ETA: 2009 |
39 | Eric Hurley | SP | TEX | Nice strikeout ratios but poor park in Texas will hurt him. ETA: June 1, 2008 |
40 | Justin Masterson | SP | BOS | Still needs to work on maintaining consistent mechanics to advance. Upside: Future top notch 8th inning set-up man. Could form a potent game ending 1-2 punch with Papelbon. Downside: Never gets mechanics worked out misses chance at stardom. ETA: 2009 |
41 | Max Scherzer | SP | ARI | Future Closer, Over-powering 98 mph fastball. Could help team now but D’Backs will be cautious and send him to AA. ETA 2009. |
42 | Ryan Sweeney | OF | OAK | Solid player. The power will come. ETA 2008 |
43 | Carlos Gonzalez | OF | OAK | Key piece of Haren deal, flashy and talented but immature. Has a Vlad level arm already. Only 22. ETA: 2008. |
44 | Jason Heyward | OF | ATL | Speaking of Vladdy.. Jason is going to be a monster. Huge powerful player. Can reach all-star power levels. Make room for another Big Daddy. ETA: 2010 |
45 | Josh Vitters | 3B | CHC | Projects as a starting 3B on a good club. Blocker at 3rd. ETA: 2010 |
46 | Angel Villalona | 3B | SF | Not yet 18. A special, special player. Far ahead of his age group at this time. Compares well to Miguel Tejada. ETA: 2010 |
47 | Austin Jackson | OF | NYY | Better defensive CF than either Damon or Melky at this point. ETA: 2009 |
48 | Carlos Triunfel | SS | SEA | Just 18. This one’s a bit special. Remains on fast track to SEA. ETA: 2010 |
49 | Scott Elbert | SP | LAD | Future No. 2 starter. ETA 2010. |
50 | Geovany Soto | C | CHC | This is a guy who can really help your roto team in 08. Target as a No.2 catcher in all formats. ETA: NOW |
51 | Jeff Clement | C | SEA | Good power potential but he needs a move to 1B/DH to advance. Blocked at 1B/C. Fundamentally, remains limited as a catcher. ETA: 2008. |
52 | Beau Mills | 3B/1B | CLE | Son of ex-big leaguer Brad Mills. Future DH. ETA 2010. |
53 | Elvis Andrus | SS | TEX | Best SS glove in the minors but, still a very green prospect. ETA 2010 |
54 | Tim Alderson | SP | SF | Compares well to Matt Cain. ETA 2010 |
55 | Jose Tabata | OF | NYY | Future star DH. Great power potential ETA 2010 |
56 | Steve Pearce | OF/1B | PIT | Only minor leaguer to reach 30+ HR and 40+ doubles in 2007. Will challenge Adam LaRoche soon. ETA 2009 |
57 | Carlos Gomez | OF | NYM | Future star RF. Compares well to fellow Met’s OF Martinez (#30). They are both on fast track to Citi Fields. ETA 2010 |
58 | Carlos Carrasco | SP | PHI | Future No. 2 starter. ETA : 2009 |
59 | Dexter Fowler | OF | COL | Very smart kid. Turned down Harvard to turn pro. 4-Tool all-star level player, His arm remains average. The rest of the package more than makes up for it. Still growing. ETA: 2008 |
60 | Lars Anderson | 1B | BOS | Raw power and has a solid glove. Will be a Fenway favorite for many years to come. ETA: 2009 |
61 | Ross Detwiler | SP | WAS | Another 2007 draftee. Has the makeup and arm of a future No.1 starter. Just needs to get some pro innings. Compares to Buchholz. ETA June 1, 2008. |
62 | J.R. Towles | C | HOU | A rare 5-tool catcher with a real solid makeup. Could play a lot in Houston. Still he has only had 674 pro at-bats, so draft as a No. 2 and nod knowingly when he takes Brad Ausmus’ job as No. 1. ETA: NOW. |
63 | Hank Conger | C | LAA | A real leader. Big strong powerful switch hitter. Could develop into a No. 1 catcher but a move to first base is likely due to a lack of agility. ETA: 2010 |
64 | Jeremy Jeffress | SP | MIL | Flamethrower with a million dollar arm. But needs maturity and pro innings. Lost ground with a 50-game suspension due to repeated marijuana use. ETA: 2011 |
65 | Jarrod Parker | SP | ARI | Total package and 2007 draftee. Compares well to Kazmir. Needs pro innings. Will come quickly. ETA: 2011 |
66 | Neil Walker | 3B | PIT | Converted to 3B and has prospered. Looks like Pittsburgh has finally found a replacement for the long departed Aramis Ramirez. No, Walker is not that good but he can play. ETA: June 1, 2008 |
67 | Hiroki Kuroda | SP | LAD | Solid Japanese Pro, now 32. Will join Dodgers starting rotation. Look for 12+ wins. ETA: NOW |
68 | Alexei Ramirez | 2B/OF | CWS | A member of Cuba’s gold medal winning 2004 team and a former Cuban home run champion. Well worth drafting if he can get his legal status sorted in time for the 2008 season (he defected from Cuba in ‘07). Once cleared to play, he will help Chicago and help you. ETA: 2009 |
69 | Luke Hochevar | SP | KC | The overall No. 1 pick in 2006 draft. Needs a few more pro innings. Had a taste of the bigs last year. The next time he gets the call from Kansas City, it will be for good. ETA: 2008 |
70 | Michael Bowden | SP | BOS | Big strong pitcher. Future innings eater and a No. 3 ETA: 2009 |
71 | Jed Lowrie | SS | BOS | Future Red Sox shortstop. Good maturity. Solid player. ETA: 2009 |
72 | Chase Headley | 3B | SD | Solid ready to play now, but blocked at 3B & 1B. A move to LF could get him more playing time. ETA: 2008. |
73 | Ian Stewart | 3B | COL | Blocked at 3B. Last time he will appear on this list. It’s make-or-break time. Could be a fantasy steal if he is moved to 2B this spring. ETA: 2008 |
74 | Anthony Swarzak | SP | MIN | A strong AFL showing was a welcome sight after 50- game recreational drug suspension shortened his ‘07 season. Improved maturity will see him join the Twins in 2009. |
75 | Radhames Liz | SP | BAL | Has already been a part of two no-hitters in the minors. Must prove he can cut down on gopher balls and on walks to advance. Similar to fellow Dominican Daniel Cabrera. ETA: 2008 |
76 | Chris Volstad | SP | FLA | Needs to fill out his 6’7” frame before advancing. Needs to get stronger. ETA: 2009 |
77 | Brett Anderson | SP | ARI | Needs to work on conditioning but once on the mound, is all business. ETA: 2010 |
78 | Tyler Robertson | SP | MIN | Poised and fearless. Future No. 2 adds another power arm to the Minnesota depth chart. ETA: 2010 |
79 | Bill Rowell | 3B/SS | BAL | Exciting future star and a fast rising prospect but very green. Will grow into a big time power source or big time headache (his idol is Barry Bonds). ETA: 2010 |
80 | Chin-Lung Hu | 2B | LAD | Smart, good baseball instincts. Stuck behin |