2008 Boston Red Sox Preview

By Darryl Houston Smith

2007 Regular Season Finish:  96-66 .593, 1^st in AL East

          Post-Season Finish:       11-3 .786, World Series Champions

Red Sox Manager:  2-time World Series winner Terry Francona is considered one of the games best managers.  His record with Boston stands at 375-273 (a .579 winning percentage).

Despite major improvements made by both the Detroit Tigers and the Los Angeles Angels this off-season, the defending champions remain the team to beat in the American League.  Even without trading for Johan Santana and the possible loss of Curt Schilling for the season, the Red Sox still have one of the deepest pitching staffs in the AL.  Boston also returns intact its powerful batting order, several quality reserves, and a farm system rich with prospects.  The deep pockets of John Henry and Company will also insure that the Red Sox will remain among Major League Baseball’s royalty for years to come.

Notable Arrivals: 

1B Sean Casey (Detroit), a 3-time all-star and a career .301 hitter, will serve as a high quality backup for Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz.  Casey also gives Francona another left-handed bat off the bench.

RHP David Aardsma (Chicago AL), could add another quality arm to the bullpen.  The former first round draft pick has been a disappointment so far in his major league career.  This is his 3^rd team in as many years but, at times, Aardsma has shown the potential to turn into a decent setup man.  Look for elite pitching coach John Farrell to try to unlock this enigma during Spring Training.

RHP Bartolon Colon (Los Angeles AL), if he can get into shape he could help the Red Sox.  Colon is a former Cy Young winner looking to save his career.  He enters camp as a real darkhorse.

Notable Departures:

1B. Eric Hinske (signed with Tampa Bay), Eric Gagne (signed with Milwaukee), and RHP Matt Clement (signed with St. Louis).  None will be missed.

What moves did they make (or should have made but didn't) over the off-season?

Not trading for Santana.  In the end the cost proved to be just too high.  The idea of opening a short post-season series with Johan Santana and Josh Beckett was tempting but, in the end, the front office decided to pass on adding Santana which appears to be a win-win situation.  The Red Sox hang onto promising youngsters such as Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie and Ryan Kalish.  And, since Santana was traded to the National League, they also will not have to face him at all during the 2008 regular season.  As Boston Red Sox senior baseball operations adviser Bill James told me, “Johan Santana is a great pitcher and the idea of having the two best pitchers in baseball at the start of the playoffs is a pretty impressive idea.  On the other hand, it is possible to over pay for Santana.  Most big money deals for pitchers turn out to be bad contracts.  Not 40% but way over half of them.”  James went on to say, “It is possible to over pay for Johan Santana as it is anyone else”.  The Twins simply overplayed their hand and asked too much in return. They settled for a much lesser package from the New York Mets then the Red Sox offered them back in December.

Starting Pitchers:

If Curt Schilling is unable to return this season, the Red Sox would likely open the season with a rotation of Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester. 

KEY PROJECTIONS:  Look for Matsuzaka to bounce back after last season’s second half fade (16+ wins and 200+ K’s).  Expect Beckett to once again challenge for the Cy Young (18+ wins 200+ K’s).  Asking 41-year-old Tim Wakefield to win another 17 games is a long stretch but he and the kids (Buchholz and Lester) certainly all have the ability to at least reach double digits in wins if they can remain healthy.

Bullpen:

Setup men Manny Delcarmen, Mike Timlin, and Hideki Okajima provide an experienced and reliable bridge to elite closer Jonathan Paplebon.  Another lefty would be nice to add.  Why the Red Sox felt compelled to resign Julian Tavarez for almost $4 million after leaving him off the post-season roster is anybody’s guess. Yes, Javier Lopez is also still with the Red Sox – another wasted $900,000, if you ask me – but with an already bloated payroll (baseball’s second highest) that’s just peanuts these days.  Lopez was terrible against lefthanders last season and needs to replaced.  The main roles in Boston’s bullpen are well defined.  Barring injury, Papelbon will get the lion share of saves, so expect the others to add a few vulture wins and only a small handful of saves.

An emergency spot starter could be found among the likes of ex-lobsterman Devern Hansack, Bryan Corey, or Kyle Snyder but none of these guys is a good long-term replacement for Schilling.  Boston may look to sign either Livan Hernandez or Kyle Lohse (both free agents) to add some depth.

KEY PROJECTIONS:  Look for Papelbon to remain among the elite closers and post his first 40+ save season.  Okajima should provide almost a K an inning and give you some decent ratios as well.  Delcarmen is a sleeper.  Keep this in mind.   If anything happens to Papillion, it could be Delcarmen, not Timlin or Okajima, who Francona might turn to first in the 9th.

Projected Batting Order:

Dustin Pedroia, 2B  
Kevin Youkilis, 1B
David Ortiz, DH
Manny Ramirez, LF
Mike Lowell, 3B
J.D. Drew, RF
Jason Varitek, C
Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
Julio Lugo, SS

KEY PROJECTIONS:  Now, Manny Ramirez says he wants to play until he’s 48.  Don’t bet against him.  As long as Ramirez stays motivated he will remain one of the top hitters in the AL and provide top notch protection for David Ortiz.  Both sluggers should put up high quality numbers again.  The Red Sox will score a ton of runs.  Top to bottom this is baseball’s most feared line-up.  Every member should be owned in every league, just don’t over pay to acquire them as age and injuries continue to steal more games from its veteran core each year.  Lugo should bounce back but draft him only for steals and watch his average, if all is well it should return to the mid-.260’s.  Ellsbury will likely be a force on the base paths as well but will remain lower in the order since Francona does not like to run in front of both Ortiz and Ramirez.  This will suppress Ellsbury’s true value but the kid is going to be a very solid player and with a full season in center field as a starter (expect 40+ steals and a .300+ average).  Do not hesitate to draft him.

Role players: Coco Crisp, Alex Cora, Brandon Moss, Bobby Kielty, Dusty Brown, Chris Carter, Jonathan Van Every.

KEY PROJECTIONS:  If Coco Crisp is traded, look for Van Every to make a real run at the team.  He can play all three outfield positions and has a solid arm.  Look for Kielty to give up switch hitting; he was never any good at it anyways.  Against lefties he would make a suitable spot starter. The Red Sox could still use a right-handed power hitter off the bench.

Non-Roster invitees:  Red Sox signed RHP Dan Kolb, RHP Dan Miceli, RHP Scott Atchison, ,C Kevin Cash, 1B Jeff Bailey, 2B Tony Granadillo, INF Keith Ginter, 2B-OF Joe Thurston and INF Gil Velazquez to minor league contracts and invited them to spring training. 

Only catcher Kevin Cash is given much of a chance to make the final 25 man roster.  If 37 year old backup Doug Mirabella breaks down, Cash would have the upper hand to replace him.  Despite the ability to handle Tim Wakefield’s knuckler neither offers any offensive punch.  Boston’s prospect-rich farm system has several inexperienced catchers with potential but would offer no standout option this season or next.  Boston would likely be forced into a trade if anything were to happen to front line regular Jason Vartiek. 

Predicted finish: 99-63, 1st place