2008 Detroit Tigers Preview

By Darryl Houston Smith

2007 Regular Season Finish:  88-74 .543, 2nd in AL Central

Tiger Manager:  Three-time manager of the year Jim Leyland is only the seventh manager in baseball history to win pennants in both leagues.  His record with Detroit stands at 183-141 (an impressive .565 winning percentage).

Coming off a disappointing 2007 season, the Tigers were very active in the off-season.  GM Dan Domrowski, sensing that the Tigers window of opportunity was closing, engineered two big trades which brought former all-stars Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis and Edgar Renteria to Detroit in return for eight minor league prospects. 

Notable Arrivals: 

3B Miguel Cabrera (Florida): Still only 25 years old, Cabrera has been one of baseball’s most consistent performers for the past four seasons.  A lifetime .313 hitter, Cabrera has tremendous power and he has averaged 32 home runs and 115 RBI since 2004.

RHP Dontrelle Willis (Florida): Willis is trying to revive his once promising career.  Last season (his worst in the majors) saw him struggle to a very disappointing 10-15 record and 5.17 ERA.

SS Edgar Renteria (Atlanta): Once the decision was made to convert long-time shortstop Carlos Guillen to first base, the Tigers knew that they needed a solid defender to anchor the infield.  With Renteria in the fold, the Tigers’ defense up the middle will be second to none.

OF Jacque Jones (Chicago NL): A very average major league outfielder, look for Jones to platoon with Marcus Thames in left.

Notable Departures:

OF Cameron Maybin, LHP Andrew Miller, RHP Jair Jurrjens, RHP Eulogio  de la Cruz, and OF Gorkys Hernandez.   Trading these five blue chip prospects leaves little doubt that the Tigers have made winning their first World Series since1984 the focus of their entire baseball operation.

What moves did they make (or should have made but didn't) over the off-season?

Trading Prospects:  The Tigers have traded an amazing 11 prospects in the past two years.  Down the road, the Tigers may regret using so much of their farm system to bolster the major league club.  But this is a trend that the organization has whole-heartily embraced.   How do they do it?  The Tigers rely heavily on their scouting and development department.  Not many clubs can operate like the Tigers. Last August at the 2007 draftee signing deadline, the Tigers spent $9.4 million to sign RHP Rick Porcello (first round), LHP Casey Crosby (fifth), SS Cale Iorg – yes, Garth’s son — (sixth) and LHP Matt Hoffman (26th) in a single day.   They draft very well and, with the deep pockets of the Ilitch family, the Tigers have been able to sign many college and high school players that other teams simply cannot afford.

Starting Pitchers:

The Tigers would likely open the season with a rotation of RHP Justin Verlander, RHP Jeremy Bonderman, LHP Dontrelle Willis, LHP Kenny Rogers and LHP Nate Robertson.

KEY PROJECTIONS:  Look for Verlander to remain among the American League elite (18+ wins and 190+ K’s).  After Verlander is where the drop-off begins.  Bonderman and Willis are both late-round gambles with decent upside.  Expect them to bounce back in 2008.  Bonderman’s elbow is better thanks to the long off-season rest but the inflammation that derailed his 2007 season remains a source of concern to the Tigers (hedge expectations to 12+ wins and 150+ K’s).  Willis should be able to take advantage of the Tigers solid daily lineup to post 14+ wins but the move to the AL will decrease his strikeouts to a more realistic 140+ K’s.  Neither Robertson nor Rogers should be more than spot starters on your fantasy rosters.

Bullpen:

A solid major league closer can be expected to pitch about 66-68 innings and produce about 30 (maybe 40) saves for the elite closers. 

For the past three seasons, Todd Jones has averaged 38 saves in 66 innings. Yes, his ERA has risen each of those seasons (2.10, 3.94 and 4.26).  But the fact that Jones is deeply entrenched as the Tigers closer means that he could still provide a lot of value in 2008.  If you miss out on the elite closers you can still compete in saves with a Todd Jones just be sure you don’t draft any additional ERA and/or WHIP killers.

With both RHP’s Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya out long-term, the Tigers need to have someone step up and take over 8^th inning duties.  It is not likely that Jeremy Bonderman will go to the bullpen during the season (however, this could change if the Tigers make post-season play).

KEY PROJECTIONS:  Look for Jones to have about 35+ saves with very few strikeouts and at least a 4.60 ERA.

Projected Batting Order:

Curtis Granderson, CF
Placido Polanco, 2B
Gary Sheffield, DH
Magglio Ordonez, RF
Miguel Cabrera, 3B
Carlos Guillen, 1B
Edgar Renteria, SS
Ivan Rodriguez, C
Jacques Jones/Marcus Thames, LF

KEY PROJECTIONS:  Six of these players (Granderson, Sheffield, Ordonez, Cabrera, Guillen, and Renteria) are very solid fantasy options and can help any team.  For Granderson, a repeat 20/20 is well within reach but unless he starts hitting lefthanders better, brace for a reduction in batting average (.280) and (100+) runs scored. He’s a fine young player but don’t draft him too early.  Another Tiger likely to come back to earth a bit is Ordonez after a dream 2007 season. Look for his batting average to be more in line with his .312 lifetime average and, even with the beefed up lineup, a repeat 139 RBI’s is a lot to ask of the 34 year old star.  Thirty-nine year old Gary Sheffield’s skills continue to decline but if his shoulder finally pain free he could surprise with a strong season. Nevertheless, caution is advised and you should hedge for .270-20-85.  This is a lineup that may be a better baseball team than a fantasy team, so be careful not to buy into the hype and over pay for last year’s statistics.  That said, this is one of the best offensive line-ups in all of baseball and, as a group, has the potential of being the second team to score over 1,000 runs in the last 58 years.   

Role players: Vance Wilson, Brandon Inge, Mike Hessman, Freddy Guzman, Ryan Raburn, Ramon Santiago, Bobby Seay, Zach Miner, and Jason Grilli.

Spring Training Non-Roster invitees:  Dane Sardinha

Valuable utility man Brandon Inge and reserve catcher Dane Sardinha should make the team coming out of camp unless Inge’s wishes to be traded are granted.

With ten former all-stars on the 25 man roster, GM Dan Domrowski has created a team that is very similar in make up to Cincinnati’s pre-1975 Big Red Machine.  Like those Reds, the 2008 Tigers should be a fundamentally sound and cohesive defensive team with just enough pitching to get by and hitters who can beat you by doing lots of little things or by bludgeoning you into submission.  How well that translates into fantasy success remains to be seen. 

Predicted finish: 90-72, 2nd in AL Central